Business Skills & Innovation

Fundamentals of Project Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis (QRA)

Conference March 16, 2018 1:20 pm - 1:40 pm

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Pedram Danesh-Mand

The use of Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis (QRA) for estimating appropriate levels of cost and schedule contingency allowances on major projects is common in many organizations. Many companies offer QRA services as part of their cost-estimating and scheduling arsenal, with varying degrees of effectiveness in relation to QRA preparation, workshop techniques and the subsequent reporting of QRA outcomes.

When undertaken effectively, the QRA process is a useful part of project risk management. In many cases, however, there is no clear link between the assumptions made during the QRA process and QRA outcomes, nor between the Base Estimate, Base Schedule and the remedial actions to be taken to address threats and opportunities identified during the QRA process.

Pedram’s presentation will outline an explanation of the basics, recommended approach to achieving effective QRA outcomes and common tools and techniques as well as few recent case studies across Australia. The discussion will address the importance of effective pre-QRA briefings, the importance of basis-of-estimate and basis-of-schedule documents, and the importance of documenting the assumptions and reasoning behind the quality of input data, the key elements of the model and its outcomes.


  • Fundamental of cost and schedule contingency estimation
  • Government requirements for contingency assessment
  • Probabilistic Cost Contingency Estimation
  • Winning and delivering projects successfully by using effective qualitative and qualitative risk assessment
  • Case Studies